{"id":24544,"date":"2014-09-25T11:14:19","date_gmt":"2014-09-25T16:14:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2014\/09\/25\/no-sign-of-gop-tide-in-congressional-voting-intentions\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:51:12","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:51:12","slug":"no-sign-of-gop-tide-in-congressional-voting-intentions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/09\/25\/no-sign-of-gop-tide-in-congressional-voting-intentions\/","title":{"rendered":"No Sign of GOP Tide in Congressional Voting Intentions"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 data-is-section=\"true\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;by-andrew-kohut&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/table-of-contents&quot;}\" id=\"by-andrew-kohut\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">By Andrew Kohut<\/h3>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By this point in the campaign season, the projected outcome of the midterm elections has been hashed and rehashed and even inspired some wonk-on-wonk <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/blogs\/plum-line\/wp\/2014\/09\/17\/nate-silver-versus-sam-wang\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fights<\/a> along the way. The conventional wisdom is that 2014 is a Republican year\u2014the GOP will keep the House and may well win the Senate. But surprisingly, as the elections approaches, the latest round of polling suggests that Republicans might not do as well in the popular vote for the House as expected. And that, in turn, means there might not be enough of a GOP tide to give Republicans an edge in the key Senate races they need to win a majority of seats in the upper chamber.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consider the 2010 midterms, when a wave of Tea Partiers helped Republicans retake the House. That year, the GOP won the popular vote by 7 percentage points. The latest Pew Research Center <a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/09\/12\/wide-partisan-differences-over-the-issues-that-matter-in-2014\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">survey<\/a>, by contrast, finds only a 3-point GOP advantage in this year\u2019s midterms: 47 percent of likely voters report intending to cast a ballot for a Republican candidate, versus 44 percent for a Democrat. And these results are not outliers, nearly matching six Real Clear Politics <a href=\"http:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/other\/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">surveys<\/a> taken in early September.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So this time around, will Republicans in the House pick up fewer seats than we expect? The Pew survey identifies two important measures that offer clues: which party is more popular among all voters and which party\u2019s supporters are most likely to turn out on Election Day.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2014\/09\/maybe-2014-wont-be-the-year-of-the-gop-after-all-111265.html#ixzz3EL9AaWaz\">Read the full article in Politico Magazine<\/a><\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The GOP\u2019s relatively thin 47-44 lead in the current midterm polls  strongly suggests that this is not a &#8220;tide&#8221; election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":86,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"relatedPosts":[],"reportMaterials":[],"multiSectionReport":[],"package_parts__enabled":false,"package_parts":[],"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[],"tags":[],"bylines":[863],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"level_of_effort":[],"primary_audience":[],"information_type":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[458],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[520],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-24544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","bylines-andrew-kohut-1942-2015","formats-report","regions-countries-united-states","research-teams-politics"],"label":false,"post_parent":0,"word_count":251,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2014\/09\/25\/no-sign-of-gop-tide-in-congressional-voting-intentions\/","art_direction":false,"_embeds":[],"watchers":[],"table_of_contents":[],"report_materials":"","report_pagination":{"current_post":null,"next_post":null,"previous_post":null,"pagination_items":[]},"parent_info":{"parent_title":"No 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