{"id":298838,"date":"2026-04-08T10:43:38","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T14:43:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?p=298838"},"modified":"2026-04-08T14:01:38","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T18:01:38","slug":"video-can-polls-tell-us-who-will-win-on-election-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2026\/04\/08\/video-can-polls-tell-us-who-will-win-on-election-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Video: Can polls tell us who will win on Election Day?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We often hear a candidate is leading, trailing, or the race is tied.\u00a0\u00a0This is based on \u201chorse race\u201d polling, which estimates how much support candidates have, based on how people answer surveys leading up to an election. But accurately measuring the horse race is wicked hard for a few reasons.\u00a0To learn more about polling basics, watch our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLZ9z-Af5ISavJpPlvdMU4T-etIDOUmldk\">Methods 101 video series<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Can polls tell us who will win on Election Day?\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/IdRnk2R2fXw?feature=oembed&#038;rel=0\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We often hear a candidate is leading, trailing, or the race is tied. This is based on \u201chorse race\u201d polling, which estimates how much support candidates have, based on how people answer surveys leading up to an election. But accurately measuring the horse race is wicked hard for a few reasons.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":377,"featured_media":298845,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"layout-full-width","format":"standard","meta":{"sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_api_pending":"","apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_hidden":false,"relatedPosts":[],"reportMaterials":[],"multiSectionReport":[],"package_parts__enabled":false,"package_parts":[],"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[357],"tags":[],"bylines":[631,794,888],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"level_of_effort":[],"primary_audience":[],"information_type":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[470],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[],"research-teams":[528],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-298838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-survey-methods","bylines-courtney-kennedy","bylines-kim-arias","bylines-sara-atske","formats-video","research-teams-methods"],"label":false,"post_parent":0,"word_count":62,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2026\/04\/08\/video-can-polls-tell-us-who-will-win-on-election-day\/","art_direction":{"A1":{"id":298845,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png","url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png?w=564&h=317&crop=1","width":564,"height":317,"chartArt":false,"caption":""},"A2":{"id":298845,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png","url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"chartArt":false,"caption":""},"A3":{"id":298845,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png","url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png?w=194&h=110&crop=1","width":194,"height":110,"chartArt":false,"caption":""},"A4":{"id":298845,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png","url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png?w=268&h=151&crop=1","width":268,"height":151,"chartArt":false,"caption":""},"XL":{"id":298845,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png","url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png?w=720&h=405&crop=1","width":720,"height":405,"chartArt":false,"caption":""},"social":{"id":298845,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png","url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2026\/04\/PM_2026.04.08_Methods-101-Episode-3_Thumbnail_Horizontal.png?w=1200&h=628&crop=1","width":1200,"height":628,"chartArt":false,"caption":""}},"_embeds":[],"watchers":[],"table_of_contents":[],"report_materials":[],"report_pagination":{"current_post":null,"next_post":null,"previous_post":null,"pagination_items":[]},"parent_info":{"parent_title":"Video: Can polls tell us who will win on Election Day?","parent_id":298838},"materialsOrdered":[],"chaptersOrdered":[],"partsOrdered":[],"partsEnabled":false,"datacite_doi":"","prc_seo_data":{"title":"Video: Can polls tell us who will win on Election Day?","description":"We often hear a candidate is leading, trailing, or the race is tied. 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