{"id":93821,"date":"2016-03-10T09:47:45","date_gmt":"2016-03-10T14:47:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/2016\/03\/10\/public-predictions-for-the-future-of-workforce-automation\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T04:18:26","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T09:18:26","slug":"public-predictions-for-the-future-of-workforce-automation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/internet\/2016\/03\/10\/public-predictions-for-the-future-of-workforce-automation\/","title":{"rendered":"Public Predictions for the Future of Workforce Automation"},"content":{"rendered":"

From self-driving vehicles and semi-autonomous robots to intelligent algorithms and predictive analytic tools, machines are increasingly capable of performing a wide range of jobs that have long been human domains. A 2013 study<\/a> by researchers at Oxford University posited that as many as 47% of all jobs in the United States are at risk of \u201ccomputerization.\u201d And many respondents in a recent Pew Research Center canvassing of technology experts<\/a> predicted that advances in robotics and computing applications will result in a net displacement of jobs over the coming decades \u2013 with potentially profound implications for both workers and society as a whole.<\/p>\n\n

\"Two-thirds<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n

Yet even as many Americans expect that machines will take over a great deal of human employment, an even larger share (80%) expect that their own<\/em> jobs or professions will remain largely unchanged and exist in their current forms 50 years from now. And although 11% of today\u2019s workers are at least somewhat concerned that they might lose their jobs as a result of workforce automation, a larger number are occupied by more immediate worries \u2013 such as displacement by lower-paid human workers, broader industry trends or mismanagement by their employers.<\/p>\n\n

Two-thirds of Americans think it\u2019s likely that in 50 years robots and computers will do much of the work currently done by humans<\/h4>\n\n
\"Government,<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n

In general, Americans of various demographic backgrounds have largely similar expectations regarding the future of automation. However, those under the age of 50 \u2013 as well as those with relatively high household incomes and levels of educational attainment \u2013 are a bit more skeptical than average about the likelihood of widespread workforce automation. Some 35% of 18- to 49-year-olds think it unlikely<\/em> that robots and computers will do much of the work done by humans, compared with 27% of those ages 50 and older. And 37% of those with a college degree think that this outcome is unlikely (compared with 28% of those who have not attended college), as do 38% of Americans with an annual household income of $75,000 or more (compared with 27% of those with an annual household income of less than $30,000 per year).<\/p>\n\n

Similarly, Americans who work in the government, nonprofit or education sectors are a bit more skeptical about the future of workforce automation than are Americans who work for a large corporation, medium-sized company or small business. Just 7% of Americans who work in the government, education or nonprofit sectors expect that robots and computers will definitely take over most human employment in the next 50 years, while 13% of those who work for a large corporation or small business or medium-sized company are certain that this will occur.<\/p>\n\n

Despite their expectations that technology will encroach on human employment in general, most workers think that their own jobs or professions will still exist in 50 years<\/h4>\n\n

Yet even as most Americans expect significant levels of workforce and job automation to occur over the next 50 years, most of today\u2019s workers[1. Throughout this report, the phrase \u201cworkers\u201d refers to anyone who reported they were currently employed on a full- or part-time basis at the time of this survey.]\u00a0express confidence that their own<\/em> jobs or occupations will not be impacted to a substantial degree. Fully 36% of workers anticipate that their current jobs or occupations will \u201cdefinitely\u201d exist in their\u00a0current forms five decades from now, while an additional 44% expect that their jobs will \u201cprobably\u201d exist in 50 years. Roughly one-in-five workers expect that their current jobs will \u201cprobably not\u201d (12%) or \u201cdefinitely not\u201d (6%) exist in their current forms that far in the future.<\/p>\n\n

Overall there are relatively few differences in these expectations based on workers\u2019 demographic characteristics, and the differences that do exist are relatively modest. For instance, younger workers are a bit more likely than older workers to expect that their current jobs will exist 50 years in the future: 84% of workers ages 18 to 29 expect that this will be the case, compared with 76% of workers ages 50 and older.<\/p>\n\n

\"Workers<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

And as was the case for their predictions for workforce automation in general, workers in government, education and nonprofit sectors are a bit more confident than those in the private sector that their jobs will exist in their\u00a0current forms 50 years from now: 86% of these workers expect that this will be the case (including 42% who indicate that their current jobs will \u201cdefinitely\u201d exist), compared with 79% of those who work for a large corporation, medium-sized company or small business.<\/p>\n\n

Along with these differences based on place of employment, workers\u2019 views on this subject also differ somewhat based on the type of work they currently do. For instance, 41% of workers whose jobs involve mostly manual or physical labor expect that their current jobs will \u201cdefinitely\u201d exist in their\u00a0current forms in 50 years, as do 34% of those who describe their current occupations as \u201cprofessional.\u201d By contrast, just 23% of those who currently work in a managerial or executive role expect that their current jobs will exist unchanged for the next five decades. But overall, a substantial majority of workers across a range of categories express confidence in the long-term staying power of their current jobs or professions.<\/p>\n\n