{"id":13570,"date":"2015-04-10T15:33:26","date_gmt":"2015-04-10T20:33:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/a-clinton-candidacy-voters-early-impressions\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:20:11","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:20:11","slug":"a-clinton-candidacy-voters-early-impressions","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2015\/04\/10\/a-clinton-candidacy-voters-early-impressions\/","title":{"rendered":"A Clinton candidacy: Voters\u2019 early impressions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Reports that Hillary Clinton will launch her presidential campaign April 12<\/a> raise inevitable questions: Will she be a stronger candidate now than she was in 2008? And which factors may help \u2013 or hurt \u2013 the former secretary of state in a second run for the White House?<\/p>\n\n

\"FT_15.04.10_hillarySupportChart\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

A poll last week<\/a> by the Pew Research Center found that 59% of Democratic voters said there was a \u201cgood chance\u201d they would vote for Clinton. That is higher than the 52% of Democrats who said there was a good chance they would back Clinton at a comparable point in 2007.<\/p>\n\n

The bigger change, by far, is the state of Clinton\u2019s possible Democratic competition. In early 2007, a first-term senator named Barack Obama was already running for president \u2013 and 32% of Democrats saw a good chance of supporting him. By June of that year, Clinton\u2019s advantage on the \u201cgood chance\u201d measure had narrowed to 10 points over Obama and former Vice President Al Gore (44%, versus 34% for each).<\/p>\n\n

Today, no more than about one-in-five Democratic voters see a good chance of voting for any other Democrat: 22% say there is a good chance they would vote for Vice President Joe Biden, and about the same proportion (21%) say this about Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts \u2013 and neither has shown serious signs of running.<\/p>\n\n

\"FT_15.04.10_hillarySupportTable\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Support for Clinton dwarfs that for the three lesser-known figures in the Democratic field who have suggested they are running: Just 8% say there is a good chance they would vote for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a Democratic-leaning independent, with even fewer supporting former Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia (2% good chance) or former Maryland Gov. Martin O\u2019Malley (1% good chance).<\/p>\n\n

As was the case in 2007, there are demographic differences in Clinton\u2019s support among Democrats. In particular, although 54% of white Democratic voters say there\u2019s a good chance they\u2019d vote for Clinton, that number rises to 66% of non-white Democratic voters \u2013 including 74% of African-Americans. In February 2007, 62% of African-American Democratic voters said there was a good chance they would vote for Clinton; 34% said the same about Obama, who was less well-known.<\/p>\n\n

Looking at the broader electorate, Clinton also has more strong support than any potential GOP contender in the 2016 general election<\/a>. A third of voters (33%) say there is a good chance they would vote for Clinton (52% say there is at least some chance). Just 12% say there is a good chance they would vote for any of the possible Republican candidates.<\/p>\n\n

Possible Impact of Clinton\u2019s Gender, Experience<\/h3>\n\n

Clinton has been in the public spotlight for more than two decades. Her personal favorability ratings have fluctuated a great deal over this period<\/a> \u2013 from her tenure as first lady, through her election as a U.S. senator, and finally during her years as secretary of state.<\/p>\n\n

She also brings a unique set of traits and experiences to the presidential campaign. Here are some early measures of how these might affect her candidacy:<\/p>\n\n

Gender.<\/strong> Even before Clinton\u2019s announcement, there was a gender gap \u2013 among Democrats \u2013 in views of Clinton<\/a>. Fully 61% of white Democratic women say there is a good chance they would vote for Clinton, compared with 43% of white Democratic men. To be sure, white Democratic men haven\u2019t ruled out voting for Clinton \u2013 only about one-in-ten white Democrats, men and women, say there is no chance they would vote for her. But at this stage, more white Democratic women strongly support her.<\/p>\n\n

The possible history-making aspect of Clinton\u2019s candidacy also registers more strongly with Democratic women than with men. In a recent Pew Research Center survey<\/a>,<\/a>\u00a069% of Democratic women, but just 46% of Democratic men, said they hope the U.S. elects a female president in their lifetime. Republican women and men \u2013 perhaps already contemplating a possible Clinton campaign \u2013 were far less likely than Democrats to say they were hoping for a woman president. Most Republican men (80%) and women (76%) said it did not matter to them if a female president is elected in their lifetime.<\/p>\n\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\"FT_15.04.10_hillaryRoleParty\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

The \u2018Clinton factor.\u2019 At this early stage in the campaign, few people seem bothered by the Clinton family\u2019s long involvement in Democratic politics, or by Hillary Clinton\u2019s role in her husband\u2019s administration. Asked in the current survey about the large role the Clinton family continues to play in the Democratic Party, just 11% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters say they are bothered by this, while 88% say it does not really bother them.<\/p>\n\n

This is similar to views in a March 2014 survey<\/a> conducted by the Pew Research Center and USA Today, when 51% of Democrats and Democratic leaners said that Hillary Clinton\u2019s involvement in the Bill Clinton administration would help her if she decided to run for president; just 11% said it would hurt her and 37% said it would not make a difference.<\/p>\n\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\"FT_15.04.10_hillaryCareer\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Clinton\u2019s experience. In the same poll, now more than a year old, most people (67%) approved of Clinton\u2019s job performance as secretary of state. (This was before the controversy over Clinton\u2019s private email account<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n

When people were asked in an open-ended format about the most positive and negative aspects of Clinton\u2019s career, 12% volunteered her experience as secretary of state as the one thing they viewed most positively. Yet 15% cited \u201cBenghazi\u201d \u2013 Clinton\u2019s handling of the 2012 attack<\/a> on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya \u2013 as the most negative aspect of her background.<\/p>\n\n

\"FT_15.04.10_hillaryDCExperience\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

In general, extensive Washington experience appears to be a less attractive attribute for a presidential candidate than it once was. At about this point in the 2008 campaign, 35% said they would be more likely to support a candidate who has been an elected official in Washington for many years, while 15% would be less likely; 45% said extensive Washington experience wouldn\u2019t matter.<\/p>\n\n

But by last year, those views had changed. More Americans viewed lengthy Washington experience as a negative (30%) than a positive (19%) for a presidential candidate; 48% said it wouldn\u2019t matter. Among Democrats, Republicans and independents, the share saying they would be more likely to support a candidate with many years of Washington experience declined between 2007 and 2014.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today, no more than about one-in-five Democratic voters see a good chance of voting for any other Democrat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":70,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"sub_headline":null,"sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":false,"apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"apple_news_api_pending":"1713063795","relatedPosts":[],"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0},"categories":[],"bylines":[964],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[520],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-13570","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","hentry","bylines-jocelyn-kiley","formats-short-read","regions-countries-united-states","research-teams-politics"],"label":"Short 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