{"id":15660,"date":"2013-08-14T07:30:34","date_gmt":"2013-08-14T12:30:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/economic-impact-of-back-to-school-shopping-a-matter-of-debate\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T03:30:26","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T08:30:26","slug":"economic-impact-of-back-to-school-shopping-a-matter-of-debate","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2013\/08\/14\/economic-impact-of-back-to-school-shopping-a-matter-of-debate\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic impact of back-to-school shopping a matter of debate"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"backtoschool-econ1\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

August — the height (or depth, depending on your point of view) of summer — also is prime season for buying backpacks, new shoes, gluesticks, notebooks, desk lamps, laptops and all manner of back-to-school gear. How much all that shopping adds to the economy, though, is unclear.<\/p>\n\n

The National Retail Federation estimates<\/a> that total back-to-school spending this summer will total $26.7 billion, or an average of $634.78 for families with school-age children. Add in the $45.8 billion the NRF predicts college students and their parents will spend, and the total back-to-school buying binge reaches $72.5 billion.\u00a0Back-to-school, the federation claims, “is\u00a0the second-biggest consumer spending season of the year other than the winter holidays.”<\/p>\n\n

Which is true, though it’s a bit like saying Bing is the second-most-popular search engine after Google.\u00a0We looked at several years’ worth of monthly retail sales data<\/a> compiled by the Census Bureau, excluding certain categories (such as car dealers, home-improvement stores and gas stations) that are unlikely to see much of a back-to-school bounce. It turns out that\u00a0August is typically the third-busiest month of the year for that group of retailers:\u00a0Last August, for example, combined sales for the selected group were about $131 billion — nearly $10 billion (or 8.1%) higher than the average for the first 10 months of the year, though well behind December ($186 billion) and November ($144.5 billion).<\/p>\n\n

\"backtoschool-econ2\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n

Looking at specific retail categories, August 2012 sales were most above the January-October average at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (22.2%); office supplies, stationery and gift stores (13.8%); and clothing and accessories stores (11.6%). The smallest bumps were at general merchandise stores (5.5%), electronics and appliance stores (5.7%) and online and mail-order retailers (6.9%).<\/p>\n\n

Last summer, the NRF estimated total back-to-school spending at $83.8 billion. The more modest actual increase of $10 billion last August suggests that, for many families, back-to-school shopping to some extent displaced other purchases.<\/p>\n\n

In many states, one phenomenon related to back-to-school shopping is the “sales tax holiday” — a few days during which (usually) specified categories of purchases are exempt from sales tax. This year, 18 states<\/a>, predominantly in the South, have had or plan to have such “holidays” between late July and mid-August; they’re typically pitched as a break for cash-strapped families and a boost for retailers.<\/p>\n\n

Economists and tax-policy experts generally have taken a dim view of sales tax holidays<\/a>, arguing that they’re, at best, inefficient tax relief<\/a> and do little if anything to generate additional retail spending beyond what people would have bought anyway. But a 2012 working paper<\/a> from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, based on an analysis of credit-card purchase data, concluded that sales tax holidays were effective at increasing consumer spending, particularly on children’s clothing and shoes (though the researchers noted that theirs was “a relatively well-to-do sample”).<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

August is prime season for buying back-to-school gear. But how much all that shopping adds to the economy is unclear.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"sub_headline":null,"sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"","apple_news_api_id":"","apple_news_api_modified_at":"","apple_news_api_revision":"","apple_news_api_share_url":"","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":"","apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":"","apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_sections":[],"apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"relatedPosts":[],"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0},"categories":[232,361],"bylines":[842],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-15660","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","hentry","category-economic-conditions","category-education","bylines-drew-desilver","formats-short-read","regions-countries-united-states"],"label":"Short Read","post_parent":0,"word_count":450,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2013\/08\/14\/economic-impact-of-back-to-school-shopping-a-matter-of-debate\/","art_direction":false,"_embeds":[],"watchers":[],"table_of_contents":[],"datacite_doi":"","prc_seo_data":{"title":"Economic impact of back-to-school shopping a matter of debate","description":"August is prime season for buying back-to-school gear. 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