{"id":179708,"date":"2024-06-27T14:56:51","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T18:56:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?post_type=short-read&#038;p=179708"},"modified":"2024-06-27T14:56:53","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T18:56:53","slug":"third-party-and-independent-candidates-for-president-often-fall-short-of-early-polling-numbers","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2024\/06\/27\/third-party-and-independent-candidates-for-president-often-fall-short-of-early-polling-numbers\/","title":{"rendered":"Third-party and independent candidates for president often fall short of early polling numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-640-wide\"><img data-dominant-color=\"3c323d\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #3c323d;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_feature.jpg?resize=480,270 480w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_feature.jpg?resize=782,440 782w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_feature.jpg?resize=960,540 960w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_feature.jpg?resize=1200,675 1200w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_feature.jpg?resize=1280,720 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"360\" width=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_feature.jpg?w=640\" alt=\"Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during a voter rally in Aurora, Colorado, on May 19, 2024. (Helen H. Richardson\/MediaNews Group\/The Denver Post via Getty Images)\" class=\"wp-image-179718 not-transparent\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during a voter rally in Aurora, Colorado, on May 19, 2024. (Helen H. Richardson\/MediaNews Group\/The Denver Post via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2024 presidential campaign stands out as the first presumptive <a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2023\/05\/16\/a-biden-trump-faceoff-in-2024-wouldnt-be-the-first-presidential-rematch\/\">rematch between major-party candidates<\/a> since 1956. It\u2019s also the first time an ex-president has <a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2022\/11\/16\/few-former-presidents-have-run-for-their-old-jobs-or-anything-else-after-leaving-office\/\">run to reclaim the White House<\/a> in more than a century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another uncommon feature is the presence of several high-profile alternative candidates, including Democratic-scion-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent Cornel West and three-time Green Party nominee Jill Stein.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kennedy, an environmental lawyer and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/rfk-jr-abortion-vaccines-housing-foreign-policy-2024-03-20\/\">anti-vaccine activist<\/a>, is currently <a href=\"https:\/\/elections2024.thehill.com\/national\/biden-trump-rfk-general\/\">polling in the mid-single digits<\/a> nationally. He appears to draw support both from people who might otherwise back President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, complicating both men\u2019s campaign calculations. (Bear in mind that accurately gauging support for third-party candidates <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2024\/05\/14\/upshot\/support-third-party-candidates.html\">can be tricky<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But U.S. political history tells us that third-party and independent candidates usually finish a lot lower than where they start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We examined preelection polls in six presidential contests that featured significant third-party or independent candidates, then reviewed those candidates\u2019 actual shares of the popular vote in the general election. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not only did support for third-party and independent candidates tend to decline over the course of their campaigns, but their vote shares often came in lower than polls suggested they might. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here\u2019s an election-by-election look at underperformance by third-party and independent candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n<div style=\"border-width:1px;padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);--block-gap: inherit\" class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible has-background has-ui-beige-very-light-background-color has-border-color has-ui-beige-dark-border-color\" id=\"how-we-did-this\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/collapsible&quot;}\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;collapsibleId&quot;:&quot;how-we-did-this&quot;,&quot;isOpen&quot;:false}\" data-wp-class--is-open=\"context.isOpen\" data-wp-init--scroll-into-view=\"callbacks.onInitScrollIntoView\"><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__title\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClick\"><div>How we did this<\/div><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__icon\"><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"context.isOpen\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-plus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-plus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!context.isOpen\" hidden><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-minus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-minus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__content\">\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given the unusual dynamics of the 2024 presidential election \u2013 including the presence of several<a href=\"https:\/\/slate.com\/news-and-politics\/2024\/03\/rfk-jr-third-party-cornel-west-jill-stein.html\"> potentially significant third-party and independent candidates<\/a> \u2013 Pew Research Center examined how such candidates fared in past elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We focused on the six elections over the past 60 years in which the major-party share of the nationwide popular vote was less than 98%. In each of those elections, an independent or third-party candidate won at least 2% of the vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For each of those candidates, we obtained support-level data via <a href=\"https:\/\/ropercenter.cornell.edu\/ipoll\/\">iPoll<\/a>, an online archive of historical survey data maintained by Cornell University\u2019s Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. For 1980 and subsequent elections, we limited our analysis to surveys of registered voters. No such surveys were available for the 1968 election, so in that case we used surveys of the national adult population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the decades, survey modes shifted from predominantly face-to-face interviews to landline telephone interviews, and then to landline-plus-cellphone interviews. By 2016, online surveys were making their first appearances, but most polls were still conducted via phone. To avoid any distortions caused by such <a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/methods\/2015\/05\/13\/from-telephone-to-the-web-the-challenge-of-mode-of-interview-effects-in-public-opinion-polls\/\">different survey modes<\/a>, we used only surveys conducted by the same mode within a given year. This meant that we only used face-to-face surveys in 1968, and only phone surveys in all other years we analyzed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We also looked at the wording of each individual question to make sure each survey was asking essentially the same thing in similar ways. In particular, we wanted to ensure that candidates were referred to by name and identified by party (or as \u201cindependent\u201d when appropriate).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once we had assembled a list of comparable questions, we plotted support for third-party and independent candidates on a timeline. The final point on each chart represents the candidate\u2019s share of the total nationwide popular vote. For 1968 through 2000, we used figures from <a href=\"https:\/\/sk.sagepub.com\/cqpress\/series\/america-votes\">America Votes<\/a>, a long-running compilation of election data. For the 2016 election, we compiled official returns from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With two exceptions, all support figures in this analysis include those who said they would vote for or leaned toward the candidate in question. The exceptions are John Anderson in 1980 (because no surveys with \u201cleaner\u201d questions met our inclusion criteria) and Ross Perot in 1992, during the interim period in which he wasn\u2019t actively campaigning (because surveys did not typically ask \u201cleaner\u201d questions about him during this period).<\/p>\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"george-wallace\">1968: George Wallace<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179710\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f0f0ef\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"814\"  sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_1.png?resize=400,814 400w\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_1.png?w=400\" alt=\"A scatter plot showing support for George Wallace in 1968.\" class=\"wp-image-179710 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f0f0ef; width:200px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fresh off his first term as Alabama\u2019s segregationist governor, George Wallace \u2013 running a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/wgbh\/americanexperience\/features\/wallace-1968-campaign\/\">\u201claw and order\u201d-themed campaign<\/a> under the American Independent Party banner \u2013 saw his support <em>rise<\/em> in polls over the spring and summer leading up to the 1968 election. In April, around 10% of adults nationally said they supported or leaned toward Wallace. By September, that had doubled to 20%. Wallace appeared within reach of his goal: dividing the field enough to <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/archive\/6638385\/nation-the-wallace-factor\/\">throw the election to the House of Representatives<\/a>, where he could try to bargain his electoral votes for \u201cconcessions\u201d on desegregation, voting rights and other issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That fall, Republican Richard Nixon\u2019s campaign began warning conservatives that voting for Wallace would only help Democrat Hubert Humphrey. Meanwhile, Democratic-aligned unions worked to pull their members \u2013 whom Wallace had targeted \u2013 back into Humphrey\u2019s fold. Wallace\u2019s running mate, <a href=\"https:\/\/timesmachine.nytimes.com\/timesmachine\/1968\/10\/04\/76934456.html?pageNumber=1\">retired Air Force Gen. Curtis LeMay<\/a>, also made headlines at his introductory press conference after saying he\u2019d consider using nuclear weapons in Vietnam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wallace\u2019s support in the polls began to slide, reaching the mid-teens in the weeks before Election Day. He ended up with 13.5% of the popular vote and 46 electoral votes \u2013 not enough to keep Nixon from winning the White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"john-anderson\">1980: John Anderson<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179711\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f2f1f1\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"908\"  sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_2.png?resize=400,908 400w\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_2.png?w=400\" alt=\"A scatter plot showing support for John Anderson in 1980.\" class=\"wp-image-179711 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f2f1f1; width:200px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rep. John Anderson of Illinois was trailing badly in the Republican presidential primaries when, in April 1980, he dropped out and said he would run as an independent instead. Anderson\u2019s candidacy generated considerable public interest: Around 20% of registered voters said they would support him, and he continued to poll around that level throughout the spring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But Anderson\u2019s nascent campaign had to spend much time and energy that spring and summer simply getting his name on state ballots. Anderson faded from view during that summer\u2019s Democratic and Republican conventions. Incumbent President Jimmy Carter, the Democrat, refused to share a debate stage with him in the fall \u2013 though Republican nominee Ronald Reagan did debate Anderson one-on-one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By October, Anderson\u2019s support in polls had dwindled to the 9%-10% range. In the end, he won 6.6% of the national popular vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ross-perot\">1992: Ross Perot<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179712\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f1f1ef\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"976\"  sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_3.png?resize=400,976 400w\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_3.png?w=400\" alt=\"A scatter plot showing support for Ross Perot in 1992.\" class=\"wp-image-179712 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f1f1ef; width:200px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Money and visibility weren\u2019t issues for Ross Perot, the billionaire businessman from Texas who mounted a stop-and-go independent campaign against Republican President George H.W. Bush and his Democratic challenger, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perot\u2019s effort, driven initially by volunteers and appearances on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.c-span.org\/video\/?c1635111\/user-clip-ross-perot-announcing-intention-run-1992\">Larry King Live<\/a>, quickly gained momentum. In March, as Perot\u2019s backers began gathering the hundreds of thousands of petition signatures he would need to get on state ballots, Perot was regularly receiving support from 20% or more of registered voters in polls. By May, about a third of registered voters were telling pollsters they\u2019d vote for or were leaning toward Perot. In a few surveys, he led both Bush and Clinton.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Amid <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1992\/06\/25\/us\/the-1992-campaign-perot-in-the-glare-of-political-scrutiny.html?searchResultPosition=24\">sharpening attacks from Republicans and Democrats<\/a>, though, Perot\u2019s numbers began falling. In mid-July, when his support was below 20% in most polls, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1992\/07\/17\/news\/end-candidacy-rise-fall-running-against-his-ambivalence-five-months-not-quite.html?searchResultPosition=29\">Perot abruptly quit the race<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although Perot was no longer actively campaigning, his name remained on two dozen state ballots, and some never-say-die supporters continued working to gain him ballot access in additional states. Pollsters continued to ask voters about Perot throughout the summer and fall \u2013 especially as speculation grew that he might jump back into the race. While Perot\u2019s support declined steadily during this interim period, in late September around 10% of voters still said they preferred him to Bush or Clinton.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perot reentered the campaign in early October, and within a few weeks his support had climbed back up to around 20%, including leaners. It began to slip again as Election Day neared, falling to around 15%. In the end, Perot won 18.9% of the popular vote \u2013 the best showing by a non-major-party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt <a href=\"https:\/\/www.presidency.ucsb.edu\/statistics\/elections\/1912\">80 years earlier<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ross-perot\">1996: Ross Perot<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179713\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f1f1f0\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"858\"  sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_4.png?resize=400,858 400w\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_4.png?w=400\" alt=\"A scatter plot showing support for Ross Perot in 1996.\" class=\"wp-image-179713 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f1f1f0; width:200px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perot wouldn\u2019t come close to that in his second campaign. At the start of the year, when it was still unclear whether he would seek the nomination of the Reform Party (which he had founded the year before), his support among registered voters typically was in the mid-teens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But Perot\u2019s support declined during the campaign, eventually settling at around 5%-7%, including leaners. His poll numbers did pick up a bit in the run-up to Election Day, when he received 8.4% of the popular vote. Among the minor candidates Perot beat out for third place: consumer advocate Ralph Nader, who took 0.7% representing the Green Party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ralph-nader-and-pat-buchanan\">2000: Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nader had a considerably higher profile four years later, when he was again the Green Party\u2019s nominee. Polls taken during that close, contentious campaign regularly found that around 5% of registered voters said they supported or leaned toward Nader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179714\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f1f1f0\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"856\"  sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_5.png?resize=400,856 400w\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_5.png?w=400\" alt=\"A scatter plot showing support for Ralph Nader in 2000.\" class=\"wp-image-179714 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f1f1f0; width:200px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That was enough to concern Democrats that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2000\/10\/25\/us\/2000-campaign-green-party-democrats-hear-thunder-left-try-steal-some-nader-s.html?searchResultPosition=7\">Nader threatened Vice President Al Gore\u2019s chances<\/a> of defeating Republican Texas Gov. George W. Bush. (Whether he in fact did so is still hotly debated among <a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/241583809_Did_Ralph_Nader_Spoil_Al_Gore's_Presidential_Bid_A_Ballot-Level_Study_of_Green_and_Reform_Party_Voters_in_the_2000_Presidential_Election\">political scientists<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/nymag.com\/intelligencer\/2016\/06\/ralph-nader-still-wont-admit-he-elected-bush.html\">journalists<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/lareviewofbooks.org\/article\/still-going-ralph-nader-electing-bush-2000-desist\/\">other observers<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the end, Nader won only 2.7% of the national popular vote. But in several closely divided states \u2013 including Florida and New Hampshire, both of which Bush carried \u2013 Nader\u2019s share was enough to potentially swing the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another third-party candidate in 2000 received a fair amount of public and media attention: Pat Buchanan, the conservative commentator who had captured the nomination of Perot\u2019s Reform Party. Buchanan polled as high as 4% in the spring, but by fall was mostly in the 1%-2% range. He ended up with less than 0.5% of the popular vote, but did well enough in five states to theoretically (or perhaps <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/03\/30\/upshot\/florida-2000-gore-ballot.html\">not so theoretically<\/a>) affect the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"gary-johnson-and-jill-stein\">2016: Gary Johnson and Jill Stein<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-640-wide is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/?attachment_id=179715\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f1f1f1\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"852\"  sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_6.png?resize=400,852 400w\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_6.png?w=400\" alt=\"A scatter plot showing support for Gary Johnson in 2016.\" class=\"wp-image-179715 not-transparent\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f1f1f1; width:200px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/politics\/2016\/09\/21\/in-their-own-words-why-voters-support-and-have-concerns-about-clinton-and-trump\/\">Widespread dissatisfaction<\/a> with Republican Trump and his Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, may have caused more voters than usual to look beyond the major parties. Two candidates in particular received considerable attention: former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson \u2013 the Libertarian Party nominee \u2013 and physician and activist Jill Stein of the Green Party. (Both Johnson and Stein had also run in 2012, though with less impact.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Johnson polled fairly strongly into the fall, with 8%-12% of registered voters routinely saying that they would vote for him or were leaning toward him. But Johnson\u2019s poll numbers began trending downward, and by Election Day his support level was hovering around 5%-6%. Johnson ended up receiving 3.3% of the vote \u2013 the 52-year-old Libertarian Party\u2019s best showing in a presidential election to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For her part, Stein often received support from 5%-7% of registered voters in polls taken during the spring and summer of 2016. But her support also eroded as the campaign went on, and she eventually received just over 1% of the popular vote \u2013 still the party\u2019s best result since Nader in 2000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Given the number of third-party and independent candidates in the 2024, we examined how such candidates fared in past elections.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":658,"featured_media":179718,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"2024-06-27T18:57:05Z","apple_news_api_id":"ede91303-83df-4a41-bd5d-8988b6ae0b05","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2024-06-27T18:57:05Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAD\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/w==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/A7ekTA4PfSkG9XYmItq4LBQ","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":false,"apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"apple_news_api_pending":"","relatedPosts":[],"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0},"categories":[426,421,39,48],"bylines":[842],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[520],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-179708","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-election-2024","category-political-parties","category-us-elections-voters","category-voters-voting","bylines-drew-desilver","formats-short-read","regions-countries-united-states","research-teams-politics"],"label":"Short Read","post_parent":0,"word_count":1735,"canonical_url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2024\/06\/27\/third-party-and-independent-candidates-for-president-often-fall-short-of-early-polling-numbers\/","art_direction":{"A1":{"id":179718,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_feature.jpg","url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_feature.jpg?w=564&h=317&crop=1","width":564,"height":317,"caption":"Independent presidential candidate Robert F. 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Richardson\/MediaNews Group\/The Denver Post via Getty Images)","chartArt":false},"XL":{"id":179718,"rawUrl":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_feature.jpg","url":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2024\/06\/SR_24.05.17_ThirdPartyCandidates_feature.jpg?w=720&h=405&crop=1","width":720,"height":405,"caption":"Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks during a voter rally in Aurora, Colorado, on May 19, 2024. (Helen H. 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