{"id":8628,"date":"2021-12-09T11:59:11","date_gmt":"2021-12-09T16:59:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/gasoline-costs-more-these-days-but-price-spikes-have-a-long-history-and-happen-for-a-host-of-reasons\/"},"modified":"2025-04-23T23:56:16","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T03:56:16","slug":"gasoline-costs-more-these-days-but-price-spikes-have-a-long-history-and-happen-for-a-host-of-reasons","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2021\/12\/09\/gasoline-costs-more-these-days-but-price-spikes-have-a-long-history-and-happen-for-a-host-of-reasons\/","title":{"rendered":"Gasoline costs more these days, but price spikes have a long history and happen for a host of reasons"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_feature.jpg?w=640\" alt=\"A driver makes his selection from various fuels priced over $6 at a Shell gas station in Los Angeles on Nov. 15, 2021.\" class=\"wp-image-403811\" \/><figcaption>A driver makes his selection from various fuels priced over $6 at a Shell gas station in Los Angeles on Nov. 15, 2021. (Al Seib\/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Americans are <a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2014\/12\/16\/gas-prices-consumer-sentiment\/\">acutely sensitive to&nbsp;gasoline prices<\/a>, especially when they\u2019re on the rise. One reason, of course, is that we buy a lot of gas: an estimated 570 gallons this year for the average driver, which at current national average prices would cost close to $2,000. Also, gas prices are posted all over town on large signs \u2013 unlike, say,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.seattletimes.com\/business\/gas-pump-angst-why-rising-price-riles-us-up\/\">milk prices<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013 and people typically buy gas on its own rather than as part of a larger shopping trip, making price changes more noticeable. And gas prices can and do swing sharply and unpredictably, in ways that can seem unconnected to the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regular gas costs, on average, 58.7% more than it did a year ago this time \u2013 $3.491 a gallon last month, versus $2.20 in November 2020, according to the federal&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm\">Energy Information Administration<\/a> (EIA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But looking just at the recent rise can be misleading, or at least incomplete. For one thing, a year ago the United States was battling&nbsp;yet another wave&nbsp;of COVID-19 cases, large parts of the economy were still shuttered and demand for gas was way down. Estimated consumption in 2020 was 534 gallons per driver, down 14.4% from 624 gallons in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n<div style=\"border-width:1px;padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);--block-gap: inherit\" class=\"is-style-alternate wp-block-prc-block-collapsible has-background has-ui-beige-very-light-background-color has-border-color has-ui-beige-dark-border-color\" id=\"how-we-did-this\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/collapsible&quot;}\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;collapsibleId&quot;:&quot;how-we-did-this&quot;,&quot;isOpen&quot;:false}\" data-wp-class--is-open=\"context.isOpen\" data-wp-init--scroll-into-view=\"callbacks.onInitScrollIntoView\"><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__title\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClick\"><div>How we did this<\/div><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__icon\"><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"context.isOpen\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-plus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-plus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!context.isOpen\" hidden><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-minus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-minus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__content\">\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every time gasoline prices spike, people seek explanations and solutions. While the Biden administration has responded to the current runup by urging regulators to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2021\/11\/17\/biden-ftc-gas-prices\/\">investigate oil and gas companies<\/a>&nbsp;and by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/biden-oil-strategic-reserve-gas-prices-a7e0802b299cd627c7ffdeeb0e50bd2c\">releasing 50 million barrels<\/a>&nbsp;from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, we wanted to place current conditions in a broader \u2013 and longer \u2013 perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our main source for gasoline price data was the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/\">U.S. Energy Information Administration<\/a> (EIA), the statistical arm of the Department of Energy. When looking at long-term price trends, we adjusted prices for inflation using the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/research-series\/r-cpi-u-rs-home.htm\">Consumer Price Index Retroactive Series<\/a>\u00a0from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics; the R-CPI-U-RS, as it\u2019s known, estimates what inflation would have been in prior years if current methods had been in use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The EIA also provides data on how much gasoline is used in the United States. To estimate full-year consumption for 2021, we calculated the ratio of this year\u2019s consumption through September to the first nine months of 2020, then applied that ratio to 2020\u2019s full-year consumption total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fhwa.dot.gov\/policyinformation\/statistics\/2019\/dl201.cfm\">Federal Highway Administration<\/a>&nbsp;compiles data from states on licensed drivers, but its most recent figures are from 2019. To estimate the total number of U.S. licensed drivers in 2020 and 2021, we applied the average growth rate over the previous five years to the 2019 total. We then divided our estimated total gas consumption by the estimated total number of licensed drivers to arrive at an estimate for how much gas the typical driver will use in 2021.<\/p>\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-420-wide\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-12766\" href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2021\/12\/09\/gasoline-costs-more-these-days-but-price-spikes-have-a-long-history-and-happen-for-a-host-of-reasons\/ft_21-12-01_gasprices_1c-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f6f5f3\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f6f5f3;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_1c.png?resize=480,590 480w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_1c.png?resize=782,961 782w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_1c.png?resize=840,1032 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"516\" width=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_1c.png?w=420\" alt=\"A line graph showing that U.S. gas prices are high, but less striking when inflation is factored in\" class=\"wp-image-12766 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, the volatility of gas prices means they can go down as sharply and as suddenly as they go up. In the spring of 2020, as the <a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/topic\/coronavirus-disease-covid-19\/\">COVID-19 pandemic<\/a> sparked widespread lockdowns, the average gas price sank 27% between Feb. 24 and April 27. Since 1994, average gas prices have fluctuated between a low of 96.2 cents a gallon in February 1999 and a high of $4.114 in July 2008. The current average price, in fact, is almost exactly what it was in September 2014 \u2013 at least on a nominal basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When inflation is factored in, today\u2019s prices appear more modest. In today\u2019s dollars, gas cost an average of $5.20 a gallon in June 2008, and more than $4 as recently as September 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, gasoline is not a single, uniform product. Besides regular, midgrade and premium gas, which differ by octane rating, there\u2019s conventional and \u201creformulated\u201d gas. The latter is required to be sold in California, along the Northeastern seaboard and in several other major urban areas to reduce&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/gasoline-standards\/reformulated-gasoline#:~:text=Reformulated%20gasoline%20(RFG)%20is%20gasoline,1990%20Clean%20Air%20Act%20amendments.&amp;text=RFG%20is%20required%20in%20cities,levels%20and%20is%20optional%20elsewhere.\">smog and other air pollutants<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the past year, reformulated gas was consistently 30 to 35 cents more expensive than conventional gas until mid-October, when the differential began to widen, according to an analysis of EIA price data \u2013 it\u2019s\u00ad now about 46 cents more expensive. Over the same period, midgrade gas has ranged from 37 cents to 46 cents more expensive than regular, while premium has been 25 to 27 cents higher than midgrade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Where you buy gas also matters. Much of the U.S. petroleum industry is concentrated along the Gulf Coast, making it perhaps unsurprising that gas tends to be cheapest there. The average price in that region was $3.072 a gallon in late November, and in Texas it was also a hairsbreadth above $3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-640-wide\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-12763\" href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2021\/12\/09\/gasoline-costs-more-these-days-but-price-spikes-have-a-long-history-and-happen-for-a-host-of-reasons\/ft_21-12-01_gasprices_2-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f6f6f4\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f6f6f4;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_2.png?resize=480,512 480w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_2.png?resize=782,833 782w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_2.png?resize=960,1023 960w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_2.png?resize=1200,1279 1200w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_2.png?resize=1280,1364 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"682\" width=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2021\/12\/FT_21.12.01_GasPrices_2.png?w=640\" alt=\"A map showing how much it costs to fill the tank depends on where you are\" class=\"wp-image-12763 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By contrast, California almost always has the most expensive gas in the country. The state\u2019s average price in late November was $4.642 a gallon, and in San Francisco it was $4.816. Besides the fact that California already uses pricier reformulated gas and has relatively high&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/bayarea\/article\/Why-are-California-San-Francisco-gas-prices-high-16568245.php\">gas taxes and environmental fees<\/a>, it is geographically far removed from other refining centers and relatively few fuel pipelines cross the Rocky Mountains to connect California\u2019s refineries to the rest of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under normal conditions, the state\u2019s refineries can produce enough gasoline to meet demand there, according to the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.energy.ca.gov\/data-reports\/energy-almanac\/californias-petroleum-market\">California Energy Commission<\/a>. But if refineries go offline due to weather, accidents or mechanical breakdowns, the state typically imports gasoline from overseas \u2013 adding to the price because of the cost of marine shipments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Americans are acutely sensitive to\u00a0gasoline prices, especially when they\u2019re on the rise. 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