{"id":9348,"date":"2020-11-10T14:00:09","date_gmt":"2020-11-10T19:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/%year%\/%monthnum%\/%day%\/most-mail-and-provisional-ballots-got-counted-in-past-u-s-elections-but-many-did-not\/"},"modified":"2024-04-13T23:44:03","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T04:44:03","slug":"most-mail-and-provisional-ballots-got-counted-in-past-u-s-elections-but-many-did-not","status":"publish","type":"short-read","link":"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/11\/10\/most-mail-and-provisional-ballots-got-counted-in-past-u-s-elections-but-many-did-not\/","title":{"rendered":"Most mail and provisional ballots got counted in past U.S. elections \u2013 but many did not"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/FT_20.11.05_UncountedBallots_feature.jpg?w=640\" alt=\"Election workers count Fulton County ballots at State Farm Arena in Atlanta on Nov. 4, 2020. (Jessica McGowan\/Getty Images)\" class=\"wp-image-379733\" \/><figcaption>Election workers count Fulton County ballots at State Farm Arena in Atlanta on Nov. 4, 2020. (Jessica McGowan\/Getty Images)\n<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A record number of votes \u2013 about <a href=\"https:\/\/electproject.github.io\/Early-Vote-2020G\/index.html\">65 million<\/a> \u2013 were cast via mail ballot (also called absentee voting) in the 2020 general election, and the outcome of the presidential race in several key states came down to them. Although former Vice President Joe Biden <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/media-calls-joe-biden-winner-bee69f9d1d32e84d68e6164ea956e67a\">has been declared the winner<\/a> over President Donald Trump, the final allotment of electoral votes may be determined by the remaining mail\/absentee ballots, as well as provisional votes that were cast on Election Day and special absentee ballots submitted by military and overseas voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Final, certified counts from this election <a href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/10\/22\/election-night-marks-the-end-of-one-phase-of-campaign-2020-and-the-start-of-another\/\">won\u2019t be available for a few weeks<\/a> or longer, depending on recounts and legal challenges. But we can get some sense of how many mail, provisional and military and overseas ballots will and won\u2019t get counted \u2013 and why \u2013 by looking at the past two even-year elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n<div style=\"border-width:1px;padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--20);--block-gap: inherit\" class=\"is-style-alternate wp-block-prc-block-collapsible has-background has-ui-beige-very-light-background-color has-border-color has-ui-beige-dark-border-color\" id=\"how-we-did-this\" data-wp-interactive=\"{&quot;namespace&quot;:&quot;prc-block\\\/collapsible&quot;}\" data-wp-context=\"{&quot;collapsibleId&quot;:&quot;how-we-did-this&quot;,&quot;isOpen&quot;:false}\" data-wp-class--is-open=\"context.isOpen\" data-wp-init--scroll-into-view=\"callbacks.onInitScrollIntoView\"><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__title\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.onClick\"><div>How we did this<\/div><button class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__icon\"><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"context.isOpen\"><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-plus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-plus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><span data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!context.isOpen\" hidden><i class=\"icon icon-library__light icon__circle-minus\"><svg style=\"width: 1em; height: 1em;\"><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/plugins\/prc-icon-library\/build\/icons\/sprites\/light.svg#circle-minus\"><\/use><\/svg><\/i><\/span><\/button><\/div><div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible__content\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-prc-block-collapsible js-react-collapsible is-style-alternate\" data-title=\"How we did this\" data-style=\"is-style-alternate\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given the sheer number of absentee and mail ballots cast this year, and the intense focus on counting or excluding them as keys to either President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden getting to 270 electoral votes, we wanted to look at the two most recent presidential and midterm elections to see how many such ballots went uncounted. We also examined provisional ballots and military and overseas votes, for similar reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our main data sources were the 2016 and 2018 Election Administration and Voting Surveys, conducted biennially by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eac.gov\/research-and-data\/studies-and-reports\">the U.S. Electoral Assistance Commission<\/a>. We also used the EAC\u2019s \u201cComprehensive Reports\u201d for those two years, which are based on the EAVS surveys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among the questions the EAVS asks is the reason why a mail, provisional, or military and overseas ballot was rejected. However, some states did not specify reasons for rejection, and a handful allowed more than one reason per ballot to be given. In references to rejection reasons, percentages reflect the share of total reasons given, rather than total ballots.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-420-wide\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-15885\" href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/11\/10\/most-mail-and-provisional-ballots-got-counted-in-past-u-s-elections-but-many-did-not\/ft_20-11-05_uncountedballots_2a-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f1f0ee\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f1f0ee;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/11\/FT_20.11.05_UncountedBallots_2a.png?resize=480,578 480w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/11\/FT_20.11.05_UncountedBallots_2a.png?resize=782,942 782w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/11\/FT_20.11.05_UncountedBallots_2a.png?resize=840,1012 840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"506\" width=\"420\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/11\/FT_20.11.05_UncountedBallots_2a.png?w=420\" alt=\"Why wasn\u2019t your mail or provisional vote counted? Here were the top reasons in 2016 and 2018\" class=\"wp-image-15885 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the 2016 general election, voters submitted nearly 33.5 million mail ballots, but more than 400,000 (1.2% of the total) weren\u2019t counted, according to data from that year\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eac.gov\/research-and-data\/studies-and-reports\">Election Administration and Voting Survey<\/a>. In 2018, 2.1% of the 30.2 million domestic civilian mail ballots, or nearly 628,000 votes, didn\u2019t make the cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both years, the most common reasons cited for rejecting mail ballots included missing the state\u2019s deadline for getting them in, not signing the ballot, and mismatches between the signature on the ballot and the one on file at the elections office. Less-common reasons included the voter having died, the ballot not including a witness signature (in the more than a dozen states that required one) and the person already having voted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright size-310-wide\"><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-15879\" href=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/short-reads\/2020\/11\/10\/most-mail-and-provisional-ballots-got-counted-in-past-u-s-elections-but-many-did-not\/ft_20-11-05_uncountedballots_1-png\/\"><img data-dominant-color=\"eeece6\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #eeece6;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/11\/FT_20.11.05_UncountedBallots_1.png?resize=480,952 480w, https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/11\/FT_20.11.05_UncountedBallots_1.png?resize=620,1230 620w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 480px, (max-width: 782px) 782px, 640px\" height=\"615\" width=\"310\" src=\"https:\/\/beta.pewresearch.org\/pewresearch-org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2020\/11\/FT_20.11.05_UncountedBallots_1.png?w=310\" alt=\"In recent U.S. elections, not all mail and provisional ballots were counted \u2013 sometimes, most were not\" class=\"wp-image-15879 not-transparent\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2016, the share of uncounted mail ballots ranged from 0.2% in the District of Columbia to 22.6% in New Mexico. In more than half of states (31 plus D.C.), fewer than 2% of mail ballots went uncounted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The odds were considerably longer for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncsl.org\/research\/elections-and-campaigns\/provisional-ballots.aspx\">provisional ballots<\/a>. Since 2002, federal law has required most states to let people vote provisionally at the polls on Election Day even if they cannot prove registration or their eligibility is questioned. Provisional ballots are separated from other ballots and counted later, assuming election officials have confirmed the voter\u2019s eligibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2016, nearly 2.5 million people voted provisionally, according to the EAVS data. However, only about 1.5 million of those provisional ballots were fully counted \u2013 214,000 more were counted in part, which some but not all states allow. (For example, if a person was registered to vote but cast a provisional ballot in the wrong district, his vote for president could be recorded but not his vote for state legislator.) All told, 28.5% of all provisional ballots cast \u2013 nearly 700,000 \u2013 ultimately <em>weren\u2019t<\/em> counted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the 2018 off-year elections, just over 1.8 million people cast provisional ballots. A little over half of them eventually were counted in full, another 101,000 or so were partially counted, and nearly 790,000, or 42.6%, weren\u2019t counted at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given the nature of provisional ballots, it\u2019s perhaps not surprising that the most common reason they were rejected was that the voter was not registered. This accounted for 43.9% of reasons given in 2016 and 38.1% in 2018. In both years, the next most common reason given was that the voter, while registered in their state, had tried to vote in the wrong jurisdiction or precinct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">States run the gamut in how many provisional ballots they count. Delaware led all other states in rejecting provisional ballots in both 2016 and 2018, counting fewer than 10% of them. At the other end of the range, Maine counted in full all 193 provisional ballots cast in 2016 <em>and <\/em>all 315 that were submitted in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Members of the military who are away from their usual voting residence, their family members and U.S. citizens living overseas can also vote in U.S. elections, using special absentee ballots. While their numbers may be small (only about 660,000 people sent in military and overseas ballots in 2016, about 0.5% of all voters), they could potentially help decide very close races.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most ballots cast by military and overseas voters <em>do<\/em> get counted. In 2016, nearly 81% of such ballots were counted by the states, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eac.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/eac_assets\/1\/6\/2016_EAVS_Comprehensive_Report.pdf\">a report by the Electoral Assistance Commission<\/a>. In 2018, only 5.7% of such ballots were rejected. Missing the state return deadline was the most common reason cited for rejecting military and overseas votes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the 2016 general election, voters submitted nearly 33.5 million mail ballots, but more than 400,000 (1.2% of the total) weren\u2019t counted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":584,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"sub_headline":"","sub_title":"","_prc_public_revisions":[],"_ppp_expiration_hours":0,"_ppp_enabled":false,"ai_generated_summary":"","apple_news_api_created_at":"2020-11-10T19:17:26Z","apple_news_api_id":"a3587498-05ba-4249-b6be-4716e9ee386e","apple_news_api_modified_at":"2023-01-04T17:38:27Z","apple_news_api_revision":"AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAg==","apple_news_api_share_url":"https:\/\/apple.news\/Ao1h0mAW6Qkm2vkcW6e44bg","apple_news_cover_media_provider":"image","apple_news_coverimage":0,"apple_news_coverimage_caption":"","apple_news_cover_video_id":0,"apple_news_cover_video_url":"","apple_news_cover_embedwebvideo_url":"","apple_news_is_hidden":false,"apple_news_is_paid":"","apple_news_is_preview":false,"apple_news_is_sponsored":"","apple_news_maturity_rating":"","apple_news_metadata":"\"\"","apple_news_pullquote":"","apple_news_pullquote_position":"","apple_news_slug":"","apple_news_suppress_video_url":false,"apple_news_use_image_component":false,"apple_news_api_pending":"1713063446","relatedPosts":[],"datacite_doi":"","datacite_doi_citation":"","_prc_seo_qr_attachment_id":0,"spoken_article_player_enabled":true,"displayBylines":true,"footnotes":"","prc_watchers":[],"_prc_fork_parent":0,"_prc_fork_status":"","_prc_active_fork":0},"categories":[40,51,420],"bylines":[842],"collection":[],"datasets":[],"_post_visibility":[],"formats":[467],"_fund_pool":[],"languages":[],"regions-countries":[515],"research-teams":[520],"workflow-status":[],"class_list":["post-9348","short-read","type-short-read","status-publish","hentry","category-election-2020","category-election-system-voting-process","category-u-s-democracy","bylines-drew-desilver","formats-short-read","regions-countries-united-states","research-teams-politics"],"label":"Short 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mail and provisional ballots were rejected in 2016 and 2018 U.S. elections","description":"In the 2016 general election, voters submitted nearly 33.5 million mail ballots, but more than 400,000 (1.2% of the total) weren\u2019t counted.","og_title":"Most mail and provisional ballots got counted in past U.S. elections \u2013 but many did not","og_description":"In the 2016 general election, voters submitted nearly 33.5 million mail ballots, but more than 400,000 (1.2% of the total) weren\u2019t counted.","schema_type":"Article","noindex":false,"canonical_url":"","primary_terms":[],"custom_schema":[],"twitter_title":"Most mail and provisional ballots got counted in past U.S. elections \u2013 but many did not","twitter_description":"In the 2016 general election, voters submitted nearly 33.5 million mail ballots, but more than 400,000 (1.2% of the total) weren\u2019t 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