- A median of 74% of adults across nine middle-income countries say global climate change is affecting the area where they live at least somewhat.
- Large majorities are concerned that global climate change will harm them personally at some point during their lifetime.
- Droughts and water shortages are the greatest concern in nearly all countries surveyed. Since 2015, people in several countries have grown more concerned about droughts and rising sea levels but less concerned about floods and intense storms.
Do people see climate change affecting their area?
A median of 74% across nine middle-income countries say global climate change is affecting the area where they live at least somewhat, while 24% say it doesn’t impact their area much or at all.
In each of the nine countries surveyed, about six-in-ten adults or more say climate change is affecting their area at least some. More than half in the three Latin American countries surveyed say climate change affects their community a great deal, including about six-in-ten in Argentina (63%) and Brazil (62%).
Since 2019, the share who say their area is affected a great deal has risen 12 points in Brazil (from 50% to 62%) and
7 points in India (from 28% to 35%). These are the only two countries where trend data is available.
In India, Indonesia and Mexico, those with at least an upper secondary education are more likely than those with a lower secondary education or less to say their local area is affected at least some. (In India, those with less education are less likely to offer an opinion.)
Perception of local effects relates to views of climate change as a personal, global threat
In all nine countries, those who say climate change is affecting their area are much more likely than those who don’t to be very concerned about it causing personal harm. For instance, Argentines who say they live in an impacted area are more than twice as likely as those who do not to be worried about personal harm from climate change (71% vs. 32%).
Additionally, those who say their local community is affected are especially likely to view climate change as a major global threat. For example, 67% of Nigerians who say their area is affected view climate change as a major threat, compared with 36% of those who don’t see such effects in their area. The same is true in all other countries surveyed, including differences of similar size among Argentines (86% vs. 55%) and Mexicans (79% vs. 49%).
Related: Views of climate change as a global threat
Concern about personal harm from climate change
Most adults in nine middle-income countries are very or somewhat concerned that global climate change will harm them personally at some point in their lifetime. For instance, 90% of adults or more in Brazil and Indonesia express this concern.
And majorities in Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Kenya and South Africa are very concerned about personal harm from global climate change.
Nigeria has the lowest share of adults expressing personal concern about climate change. Still, roughly seven-in-ten share this view.
In 2021, we asked people in 17 high-income countries many of the same questions in this report. For more, read “In Response to Climate Change, Citizens in Advanced Economies Are Willing To Alter How They Live and Work.”
Views over time
Since we first asked in 2015, concern about personal harm from climate change has declined in some middle-income countries and increased in others.
Fewer adults in Nigeria, India, Mexico, Argentina and Brazil are worried about this now than they were a decade ago. For instance, 83% of Mexicans are concerned about personal harm from climate change in their lifetime, down 9 points from 92% in 2015.
But in Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia, concern about personal harm from climate change has grown over the past decade. For example, 91% of Indonesians are very or somewhat concerned about this, up 18 points since 2015.
In Kenya, attitudes have remained more stable: 87% of Kenyans now express concern about personal harm from climate change, comparable to the 89% who felt this way a decade ago.
Views by age
In India, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey, younger adults are more likely than those ages 50 and older to be concerned about global climate change harming them personally. For instance, 86% of Mexican adults under 35 express this concern, compared with 77% of their older counterparts. (In India, older adults were less likely to answer the question.)
Concern over possible environmental effects of climate change
We asked people which of four possible effects of climate change concerns them most. Across the nine middle-income countries surveyed, a median of 47% point to droughts or water shortages, 21% say long periods of unusually hot weather, 19% say floods or intense storms, and 7% say rising sea levels.
Droughts or water shortages are the top concern in all countries except Nigeria, where that response is statistically tied with hot weather. Worry about droughts is highest in Mexico and Turkey, where about seven-in-ten adults or more name this as their top concern.
The share naming long periods of unusually hot weather as their top concern is highest in Nigeria (34%) and lowest in Turkey and Mexico (9% and 12%). And the shares pointing to floods or intense storms range from 30% in South Africa to 4% in Mexico.
Rising sea levels are the fourth-most common concern in the majority of countries surveyed. The share citing this as the thing that worries them most is highest in Indonesia (14%).
Views over time
Concerns about droughts and water shortages – the most common response in many countries surveyed – have shifted in some places since 2015.1 In Turkey, for example, 73% today say droughts worry them most, up from 35% in 2015. The share saying this has declined, however, in Brazil and India. A decade ago, nearly eight-in-ten Brazilians (78%) said droughts were their top concern, but today it’s only about half (49%).
The shares most worried about long periods of unusually hot weather – the second-most common response in some countries – have also changed in a few places over the past decade, rising substantially in Brazil (+16 points), India (+15) and Argentina (+7), but falling in Indonesia (-12) and Turkey (-7). Concerns about periods of hot weather are unchanged in Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria and South Africa.
Similarly, concerns about rising sea levels have become more common in Indonesia (+8 points), India (+6), Brazil (+4) and Kenya (+3) since 2015. NASA models indicate that coastal cities in these countries are at risk of increased flooding as a result of rising sea levels.
Lastly, concerns about floods or intense storms have fallen significantly in Turkey (-23 points) and Mexico (-13) – two countries where concerns about droughts have risen – as well as in Argentina and India. Opinion has not shifted much in Indonesia, Kenya, Nigeria or South Africa.
